Gabe and Jay’s Oscar Picks: 2011
Ten years ago, the world witnessed the start of a literary phenomenon—Gabe Spece and Jay Varner contributed their first column of Oscar picks in The Crusader, Susquehanna University’s campus newspaper. The column took up an entire page and then some, receiving the wrath of copy-editors, section-editors, and editors-in-chief. It was read by approximately twenty-five percent of Crusader readers—which themselves were made up of about thirty-five percent of the study body. So, like fifty people (it was a small school). Still, that didn’t stop this duo from analyzing the Oscar nominees with a self-importance not even Pauline Kael or Roger Ebert ever showed. And the columns have become legendary—at least in the minds of Gabe and Jay.
In honor of this journalistic milestone, we’re doing it again this year. The Academy Awards are Sunday night. Get your popcorn ready.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Why He’ll Win: No one emaciates himself for art quite like Bale (see The Machinist, Rescue Dawn, Newsies)
Why He Won’t: Someone paid off the Academy?
But Seriously: This one belongs to Bale. Authentic, vivid portrayal of a broken man. This performance will stick with you for days.
John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Why He’ll Win: Hahaha, win?! Yeah. You’re funny.
Why He Won’t: His character is a meth maker. His character is named Teardrop. His character slams a woman into a refrigerator at one point. Shall I keep going?
But Seriously: Amazing, gritty performance from a veteran character actor. He won’t win, but hopefully this will ensure more quality roles in the future.
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Why He’ll Win: He’s a womanizing, pot-smoking motorcyclist who meets his biological children for the first time in 20 years and then beds their lesbian mother. Who can’t relate to this?!
Why He Won’t: It’s because of him that we once again had to see Julianne Moore sans clothes. Really, again?!
But Seriously: Ruffalo is good, but this movie belongs to its two powerful lead actresses.
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Why He’ll Win: His Bahstun accent was the perfect mix of regional dialect and pure gibberish.
Why He Won’t: He’s not even the most convincing Bostonian in this category.
But Seriously: Renner is damn talented, as evidence by back-to-back Oscar nods. Unfortunately, he’s up against too many other talented players here. He’ll get his award, but not tonight.
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Why He’ll Win: British, British, British.
Why He Won’t: No one steals the spotlight from Colin Firth. NO ONE!
But Seriously: Another solid performance from Rush. If King’s Speech steamrolls on Oscar night, Rush could very well win his second statue.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Why She Will: Everyone likes to see the pretty get all uglied up for a movie.
Why She Won’t: Her best performance this year was obviously Leap Year.
But Seriously: Again, she’s tremendously talented. And this is the toughest category this year. There’s a shot she will win.
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Why She Will: If Academy gives her the award, she may face same career troubles as other recent winners in this category and thus disappear from public sight.
Why She Won’t: Crippling fear of what she will wear and how her hair will looks makes Academy members squeamish.
But Seriously: If the movie goes on a run, it could happen. But it’s Firth’s movie.
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Why She Will: Her ridiculous Oscar campaign featuring dolled-up pictures showed Academy voters how much she really acted.
Why She Won’t: Her ridiculous Oscar campaign featuring dolled-up pictures showed Academy voters how much she really acted.
But seriously: That Oscar campaign really did hurt her, no matter the reasons.
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Why She Will: Everyone loves to see kids get it!
Why She Won’t: She’s just a kid. Come on!
But Seriously: Academy does have a habit of awarding this to young actresses, and Steinfeld might pull an upset with her funny and hardened performance.
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Why She Will: Academy loves voting for movies no one has heard about.
Why She Won’t: This is a movie, right?
But Seriously: Very few people saw this movie, despite being a great flick.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Why He Will: Too handsome to deny.
Why He Won’t: Too handsome, and we all hate that.
But Seriously: He’s one of the best actors of his generation, but this is a little-seen film that didn’t receive great reviews.
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Why He Will: Even on the shoulders of Crazy Heart, Academy still trying to make up for The Big Lebowski oversight.
Why He Won’t: Speaking all dialogue with a mouthful of chewing tobacco made it hard to understand him.
But Seriously: He just won last year even though this is the better performance. Doesn’t have the momentum he had last year.
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Why He Will: Academy loved his work in Arrested Development and Superbad.
Why He Won’t: Playing an amplified jerky version of normal neurotic role.
But Seriously: He is typecast, but delivers a very difficult role of an unsympathetic character. Still, he needs to show a little more range before getting Oscar.
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Why He Will: Sometimes all points of the universe align and there’s no way stopping fate. This is one of those times.
Why He Won’t: Um, yeah, we’ve got nothing.
But Seriously: He’s probably already cleared the spot where this is going to go. He’s a fine actor and does give a great performance here.
James Franco (127 Hours)
Why He Will: Method-actor Franco actually amputated an arm in preparation for the role. During filming, he amputated the other arm.
Why He Won’t: No longer having arms will make handing him the statue very awkward.
But Seriously: He’s a great actor, but this move wasn’t seen by many. He’ll win, but not this time around.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture
Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)
Why She’ll Win: Because we finally forgive her for being an awful mother in American Beauty.
Why She Won’t: Warren Beaty is a douche.
But Seriously: I think Benning is a shoe-in…for second place. Subtle, lived-in performance but it begged the nagging question “Couldn’t Julianne Moore just as likely have been nominated instead?”
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Why She’ll Win: Keith Urban needs some good press for his new album.
Why She Won’t: Audiences tend to squirm at the sight of her botoxed face.
But Seriously: Great performance in a movie that too many people didn’t get a chance to see.
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Why She’ll Win: (Spoiler Alert) She skinned a squirrel and cut off a dead man’s hand for God’s sake. What else do you want?
Why She Won’t: Seriously, she skinned a squirrel. The uppity, left-wing Academy won’t look kindly upon that bit of animal cruelty.
But Seriously: Masterful performance in one of the year’s darkest films. In a less-qualified field, Lawrence would be the runaway choice. Instead, she’ll have to wait at least another year to hear her name called.
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Why She’ll Win: Portman, like her character, is a perfectionist. Also like her character, she can make her eyes run red with blood and sprout wings from her back if you upset her.
Why She Won’t: Baby bump. In a dress.
But Seriously: No one deserves this award more than Portman. Her masterful performance is one that transcends genre, age, and gender and lands somewhere near the top of the list of all time great performances. Period.
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Why She’ll Win: James Van Der Beek gets to cast 20 ballots himself.
Why She Won’t: The last woman the Academy awarded for a sexually expressive and uninhibited performance was Jodie Foster in The Silence of the Lambs.
But Seriously: Williams is the spoiler. Her heart-breaking turn as a woman on the brink of divorce (and mental collapse) was jaw-droppingly good. I won’t be surprised if she steals this one right out from under Portman.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Why He’ll Win: The power of the mustache knows no bounds.
Why He Won’t: His film touched upon very difficult themes of sexual desire, crushing parental control, ballet.
But Seriously: Aronofsky deserves this, having crafted a beautifully twisted film set in the world of ballet. He could pull it off, but it seems unlikely.
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Why He’ll Win: Because the man needs to finally be recognized for the sheer genius that was Flirting with Disaster.
Why He Won’t: By casting Mark Wahlberg in his film, Russell reminded us of what we desperately wanted to forget: The Happening.
But Seriously: Russell’s direction is flawless and his actors received three nominations. In any other year…
Tom Hopper (The King’s Speech)
Why He’ll Win: The Academy loves those wacky camera angles! It’s so avant-garde.
Why He Won’t: Isn’t this why they created the BAFTA’s?! Stay on your own side, Hopper!
But Seriously: Hopper and fellow nominee Fincher are neck-and-neck right now. It literally could go either way, but I’m leaning towards…
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Why He’ll Win: Because he’s trying so hard to convince everyone that he doesn’t care. And if there’s one thing the Academy loves, it’s faux-humility.
Why He Won’t: Does anyone want to watch him do 99 takes of his acceptance speech?
But Seriously: Fincher inches out Hopper for the award, if for no other reason than the show-stopping Henley Royal Regatta sequence. Pure cinematic gold!
Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Why They’ll Win: Good will. The Academy loves the Coen brothers. Apparently the Academy never saw Intolerable Cruelty.
Why They Won’t: There are still jackasses out there who think the ending of No Country for Old Men “sucked”.
But Seriously: Let’s be honest here: this was a good, but not great, outing from the Coen’s. They’ve done better and they’ll win this award again, but not this year.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
127 Hours
Why It Will: If it doesn’t win, the ever-busy James Franco will write a sequel novel, edit together a nine-hour documentary using outtakes, teach four classes at Yale on the film, and generally just keep working.
Why It Won’t: The guy saws his freaking arm off.
But Seriously: Well-reviewed, but surprisingly under the radar for the most part. Doesn’t seem to have the same love as Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire.
Black Swan
Why It Will: In recent years, the Academy has proven to be racially accepting and should have no problem getting over the color barrier.
Why It Won’t: I’ve heard the director wears both a mustache and a scarf. That’s just too much precious pretention even by Hollywood standards.
But Seriously: There’s an outside shot that it could win if The Social Network and The King’s Speech split the vote. But it seems awfully edgy for a conservative Academy.
The Fighter
Why It Will: Because Mark Wahlberg will punch you if it doesn’t. And David O. Russell will berate you in front of all your co-workers.
Why It Won’t: Yes, he’s fighting, but not against social injustice. Ultimately, just not Academy’s thing.
But Seriously: It’s a fine film with great performances, but ultimately, it’s the performances that drive an otherwise average sports movie.
Inception
Why It Will: Because the Academy has shown they love to embrace challenging and intriguing science fiction films.
Why It Won’t: See above, except make opposite statement.
But Seriously: Chris Nolan is not nominated for director (a shame) and that’s pretty much the movie’s death knell.
The Kids Are All Right
Why It Will: They mistake it for that documentary about teachers that didn’t get nominated for Best Documentary and vote for it out of guilt.
Why It Won’t: Academy finally tires of constant Jullianne Moore nudity.
But Seriously: Another indie recognized. And that’s that.
The King’s Speech
Why It Will: It’s Mirimax, and they know how to campaign. Stuffy, portentous, and self-important—yeah, that’s enough.
Why It Won’t: Piers Morgan sure loves it, and the Academy is still missing Larry King. Also, fears that the acceptance speech will indeed be stuttered and run broadcast way over limit.
But Seriously: It’s a strong contender, but might come in second. Ultimately, it’s a glorified television film with good performances.
The Social Network
Why It Will: Because the downfall of MySpace perfectly captures the crumbling economic times. Wait… what? It’s not about that? Well crap.
Why It Won’t: Ultimately about a technological movement that’s sixty years ahead of most Academy voters. Case in point: this year’s ballots were submitted via a complex message in a bottle system.
But Seriously: It is timely and relevant. It’s almost the most thrillingly well-made movie of that year that fires on all levels.
Toy Story 3
Why It Will: Academy has been looking for the right Tim Allen project for years to award Best Picture after For Richer or Poorer was shut-out.
Why It Won’t: Academy voters were whimpering and crying at the end, thus rendering their ballots nothing more than soggy pulp.
But Seriously: Nice to see Toy Story 3 and Pixar get the nod for Best Picture—it’s a recognition of their work. And nothing more.
True Grit
Why It Will: It’s the Coens! It’s the Coens! It’s the Coens!
Why It Won’t: Academy usually steers clear of enjoyable, crowd-pleasing movies that actually enthrall audiences.
But Seriously: It’s a great movie, but it lacks some of the gravitas of other Coen Brothers movies.
Winter’s Bone
Why It Will: One word: meth!
Why It Won’t: Academy has never recognized a movie with such a possibly pornographic title.
But Seriously: It’s ultimately just too dark for Academy members despite its brilliance.
Like this:
Be the first to like this post.
February 26, 2011
Categories: Uncategorized . . Author: jayvarner . Comments: Leave a Comment